An estimated 13.6 million new cars and
trucks will be sold in 2012, according to a new auto sales forecast released on
Monday by Edmunds.com. The forecast anticipates a solid increase over 2011 new
car sales, which could come in as high as 12.8 million vehicles when December
comes to a close.
"With annual sales still far below the level achieved
prior to the last recession, there's plenty of indication that pent-up demand is
far from spent," says Edmunds.com Chief Economist Dr. Lacey Plache. "Improved
selection and loosening credit conditions are helping to entice the millions of
buyers that are waiting to jump back into the market."
From January
until April, the industry will see the tail end of the current "mini-bubble" of
auto sales generated by car buyers who steered away from high prices and poor
selection at dealer lots last summer following the Japanese earthquake. Of those
months, sales are likely to peak in March, a popular car-buying month.
At
that point, seasonal factors will resume as a key influence on sales in 2012,
resulting in more volatile sales on a monthly basis as opposed to the flat line
monthly sales that we saw this year from May through November. Specifically,
next summer's sales will be influenced in May by graduation-related purchases
and again in August by the summer sell-down of current year models, then popular
year-end sales events should continue to keep the recent trend of strong
November and December sales performances well intact.
Next year won't be
without obstacles, though. Dr. Plache says that the continued slow pace of the
economic recovery and uncertainty in the months leading up to the U.S.
Presidential election may constrain sales growth. Threats of a European
recession and a Chinese economic slowdown will also pose a risk to growth in the
auto market, and if these or other negative events shake the marketplace, new
vehicle sales momentum could weaken.
Before the calendar turns to 2012,
automakers are aiming for a strong finish this year. An analysis of early
December sales by Edmunds.com Vice Chairman Jeremy Anwyl indicates that December
will wrap up the year on a high note.
Source: Edmunds.com,
12/19/11